Donald Trump’s ‘Iran strategy’, summarised in a White House media release on 8 May and fleshed out by Secretary of State Mike Pompeo in a speech in Washington on 21 May, has significant direct and indirect policy implications for Australia.
Both Trump and Pompeo made it clear that the US withdrawal from the JCPOA nuclear deal is only one part of a broader strategy to end Iran’s ‘malign activities’ regionally. Options within the strategy include forcing ‘regime change’ by breaking Iran’s economy if the Iranians fail to meet all US demands.
Both men also confirmed that the economic interests of the Europeans and others—including, by implication, Australia’s—are expendable unless they coincide with Trump’s ‘my way’ strategy. For Australian policymakers, it must now be clear—if it were ever in doubt—where Australia and others fit within Trump’s worldview.
Trump is highly egotistical and unconventional—a deal-maker, a risk-taker and a firm believer that might is right. His supporters see him as gutsy and outcomes-driven. He makes things happen, and is refreshingly unconstrained by stodgy international norms of diplomacy. His detractors see him as unpredictable and untrustworthy, whether dealing with friends or foes. But many see Trump as a mix of both, depending on the circumstances.
Trump’s overriding commitment, as for all his predecessors, is to put American interests first and make America great again. All his actions derive from this. He interprets—or makes up—the rules to accommodate his ‘my way’ strategy. But this hasn’t diminished the importance of the Australia–US bilateral relationship.
Read the article by Ian Dudgeon in The Strategist.