Significant changes in Australian foreign policy are not normally announced on the hustings during a Sydney by-election. So the announcement that Australia was considering moving its embassy in Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, made during the Wentworth by-election was more about delivering an “announceable” and some “cut through” that would help the government’s candidate in a traditionally Liberal seat it was in trouble of losing. But in doing this without seeking advice from his minister or her department, let alone discussing it in cabinet, Scott Morrison has shown all the feel for Middle East politics that one would expect from a Sydney marketing executive.
This thought bubble is a bad policy for so many reasons. First, policy on the run is invariably poor. Second-order effects, practicality, costs and the like have to be considered and this requires a lot of staff work. Hence a significant change of decades-old policy should not be initiated based on an argument from a by-election candidate to a sitting prime minister. Even though the candidate was a former ambassador to Israel, his was a single voice. Several other diplomats have also filled that role, there is an entire department whose whole raison d’etre is to develop policy options and the former foreign minister allegedly briefed cabinet after Donald Trump’s decision to move the US embassy to Jerusalem that there was no case for Australia to follow suit.
Second, after the wholly predictable criticism from Indonesia and Malaysia regarding the issue, the mantra that “Australia’s foreign policy won’t be dictated by foreign leaders” rings somewhat hollow given Morrison’s thought bubble about ditching decades-old bipartisan support for Australia’s embassy to remain in Tel Aviv until final status talks are concluded, followed on less than six months from Trump moving the US embassy. Given that only Guatemala, Brazil and Paraguay (which reversed its decision after less than four months) have followed Washington’s lead, the impression our foreign policy is being dictated by foreign leaders is overwhelming.
Thirdly, moving one’s embassy into one half of the city while the Israeli government occupies the other half in contravention of numerous UN Security Council and General Assembly resolutions doesn’t say much about Canberra’s respect for international norms. It would also seriously weaken any influence Australia has in arriving at a two-state solution sometime in the future.
Read the article by Rodger Shanahan (Lowy Institute) in The Australian.