Heterogeneous Iran is ripe for fragmentation begun from within

We may see reports of the frictions only occasionally, but Iran is ­always a nation on the verge of fragmenting — and right now things are particularly fragile.

The social makeup of Iran’s population is complex ­because there is no such thing as an Iranian people or Iranian nation. There are, instead, Iranian citizens divided into many ethnic groups: Persians make up about 60 per cent of the population, while the rest are Azeris, Kurds, Balouchis, Arabs, Turkmen, Kashkais, Louris and tens of other smaller ethnic groups.

The main religion in Iran is Shia Islam, adhered to by 90 per cent of the country’s people, while Sunnis — mainly Kurds and Balouchis — make up about 10 per cent. The country recognises ­Judaism, Christianity and Zoro­astrianism, and reserves a parliamentary seat for each religion.

All these parts of the population have little in common, the awareness of nationhood is weak and, as a result, the state is always under threat of breaking apart. This is why the central ­regime is always a dictatorship: nationalistic secular, as it was under the shah until 1978, or ­Islamic religious, as it has been since the beginning of 1979 under the ayatollahs. Were there a less oppressive regime, Iran would implode.

The Balouchis, Kurds and some of the Sunni Arabs are in a permanent state of rebellion against the central government. The rebel ­organisations they have spawned are constantly acting against that government, from acts of general sabotage to damaging official ­vehicles, attacking government institutions, police, army and ­security forces and their officers. The Arab minority of Iran, in whose region the oil and gas ­reserves of the country are found, consider their lands “occupied territory” since 1925 and demand ­independence from Iran.

Read the article by Mordechai Kedar in The Australian.